First, I have enough scientific background on the subject of

Economics And Climate Change

buy canada goose jacket SummaryThe well meaning planners of the IPCC have failed to convince Americans of the need for action on climate change; this cheap Canada Goose is buy canada goose jacket due to the failure of the Kyoto Protocol. buy canada goose jacket

canada goose If we first stipulate that climate change is real, anthropogenically driven, and poses risks to civilization, we still need to plan for both mitigation and adaptation. canada goose

Canada Goose Jackets The Paris Accords pose almost www.canadagooseonsales.com hopeless goals for mitigation; canada goose coats the carbon budget remaining to stop warming at 2 degrees C will be used up well before 2039 (the target date). Canada Goose Jackets

canada goose coats on sale Costs of mitigation are probably underestimated, but even if not, adequate mitigation will not occur in time to deal with 3 4 feet of sea level rise by 2100. canada goose coats on sale

Canada Goose Parka Adaptation involving building sea walls and tidal barriers will be more important in the next few years; therefore buy JEC, FLR, CBI, CX, and HCMLY; also FSLR, GE, TSLA. «As you sow, so shall you reap» may be the original version of this sentiment. These phrases may have direct application in the ongoing drama of the climate change culture wars. On the one hand, the scientific community has reached a fair amount of consensus that global warming is real and a threat over the long term. However, on the other hand, the way this story has been «sold,» and the Canada Goose Parka failure of highly touted mitigation efforts by international governmental bodies, have together made the general public in the US cynical and unresponsive to the cries of the warming alarmists. Thus, there is an important economic aspect to canada goose outlet the climate controversy that may need more thought and evaluation applied to it than has so far been the case. Canada Goose Parka

canada goose clearance sale Now let me stipulate a few things so readers don’t waste their time or mine in over reacting to the politically incorrect statements just made. First, I have enough scientific background on the subject of climate to have an informed opinion on climate change risks and global warming mitigation efforts. This is by virtue of having done a PhD in a relevant science (geology), and having done paleoclimate research as part of a team using canada goose deals a global climate model (GCM) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (OTC:NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado under a research project funded by the National Science Foundation in 1990 92, which was later published by the Geological Society of America as the lead article in an edited scientific monograph. I have also done extensive graduate level coursework on oceanography, climatology, geochemistry, and earth system science. None of this makes me an expert on current research, and I do not claim any sort of superior knowledge in this area of science (far from it), but I have a good understanding of the issues and the data, and of how natural systems work on a planetary scale. canada goose clearance sale

canada goose uk outlet I want to stipulate that I absolutely believe that the apparent scientific consensus on canada goose clearance sale global warming is essentially correct: The earth’s surface temperatures are on a long term warming trend, and this trend is primarily driven by human activity. The damage to civilization, especially in coastal areas, will eventually be very serious. canada goose uk outlet

canada goose coats Impact of a 1.0 Meter Sea Level Rise:Supposedly in the interests of «saving the planet» (which by the way is a completely unscientific and anti historical sentiment, as the planet as a system doesn’t need saving only people do), the international community has spawned entire industries (a «climate science industrial complex» if you will) dedicated to delineating the problems and selling solutions. However, mixed in with the many legitimate measures are a number of exaggerated, ephemeral, or even false measures or ideas being presented to gullible governments and greedy investors. If you need an example, look no further than the US corn based ethanol boondoggle, which has provided small benefits to the carbon budget of the atmosphere, but has also raised emissions of formaldehyde and ozone, and has resulted in the squandering of enormous water resources, according to data from the USGS. This general rush, or opportunistic grab for money does not in any way argue against the need for doing something about climate change, as the threat remains very serious in my opinion. But it does harm the quest for the political will to solve the problems associated with rapid climate change. canada goose coats

Canada Goose Online Huge international efforts have been made over the last 30 years to rein in the anthropogenic causes of global warming or climate change, which is of course quite laudable based on the evidence of warming and the potential damage it might do, but it has had very little actual effect so far. This is an appallingly poor result by any measure, but especially on the basis of a reasonable cost/benefit analysis. Canada Goose Online

Canada Goose Coats On Sale It is pretty clear now, that however necessary the science of the time made a Kyoto treaty of some type seem, the politics involved made Kyoto a complete failure in terms of actual climate mitigation or impact. However, it did achieve the political goal of getting the world started on the problem. There was effectively no useful cost/benefit analysis done in preparation for the Kyoto meetings in my opinion, nor really very much more (that is believable) in all the time since. The recent climate accords reached Canada Goose Jackets in the Paris meetings (COP21) call for a target increase of no more than 1.5 degrees canadian goose jacket C above pre industrial levels if possible, with a backup goal of 2.0 degrees C if the first goal is not met in time. How much time we have for getting emissions cut enough to matter is the crux of the problem. Canada Goose Coats On Sale

cheap canada goose uk What I object to then is canada goose coats on sale not the growing alarm at the fact of global warming. I am myself mildly alarmed. Instead, I have five somewhat smaller bones to pick with the so called international consensus: 1) in general the rate of sea level change, even as now understood, is not as catastrophic as has been claimed over the last few decades, and many dire predictions have been proven premature; this has had an undesirable «boy who cried wolf» effect; 2) the earth has been through much worse episodes in geologic history with respect to temperatures, carbon dioxide, and sea levels, so we do not need to fear for the planet itself, and certainly not in the next few years; rather, it is human civilization that will have to (and can) adapt; 3) there is abundant evidence that civilization has Canada Goose Outlet already adapted to steady (but somewhat slower pace than that now expected) sea level rise and changing precipitation patterns for literally millennia; 4) the global climate models now in use do not have sufficient accuracy to «predict» even the current climate in detail, and therefore should not be accepted uncritically, or solely relied canada goose clearance upon for making policy decisions based on dire model predictions of what’s coming; and 5) the failure by the scientific, economic and political communities to undertake realistic and rigorous cost/benefit analyses as guides to international mitigation efforts is causing a tremendous waste of economic and political capital which is starting to have a serious impact on business. cheap canada goose uk

Canada Goose online With respect to the first objection raised above, I present the popular imaginary scenario pictured below, the canada goose store idea for which dates back quite a few years. Many, many global warming alarmists have claimed that the sea was going to flood our cities by 2000, or 2015, or whatever. This does not mean the water isn’t going to actually flood our cities, because it absolutely will at Canada Goose sale some point; rather it means that there is a «Chicken Little» attitude amongst some observers that has done them no credit (because they were wrong) and has weakened the political argument for taking action. I won’t mention any names, but certain Nobel Laureates come to mind. Canada Goose online

Canada Goose Outlet Apocalypse Now? Or Maybe Soon?With respect to the second objection raised above, I would point out that in earth history there is good evidence that CO2 levels have at different times been as much as 15 times higher than at present, and for long periods of time Canada Goose online more than 3 times as high as the present elevated level, as shown by the chart below. This is based on a series of geochemical models for the carbon budget of the planet. The earth and its creatures survived all of that in pretty good shape, or we wouldn’t be here. Earth as a complex system has made it through some pretty big changes over time, and it will make it through anthropogenic global warming as well. for the last 20,000 years, or 2 feet per century. In fact, out of the 90 models shown in canada goose the graph below, 95% were predicting temperatures that are systematically too high relative to actual measurements. This is a problem dating back thirty years, and it has never been fully resolved. Notice that the bias is almost uniformly high; the alternative is unthinkable given the way that scientific funding works. Note also that the trend is still very clearly upwards. The economic models treating the estimated costs of mitigation or adaptation are genuine attempts at cost/benefit analysis, but as shown in the long discussion on mitigation to follow, they make heroic assumptions that will not generally turn out to be accurate Canada Goose Outlet.